NOWCAST: This Evening through Tonight
This morning, RADAR tracked a thin line of light showers making 
its way from the NE over us and slowly transitioning beyond our marine 
area to our SW. Moderate near E winds rose slightly over the airfield 
and the AWOS sensors in Dockyard indicated persistent winds near 
20 knots while cloud layers hung at SCT030 with cirrus blowing overhead. 
As broad high pressure continues to pass to our distant north, then 
shifts out towards our NE, local winds will respond tonight by gradually 
veering to the SSE or S. Seas build into the marginal moderate category 
tonight.
WARNINGS: A small craft warning is in effect for this evening. 

AVIATION: VFR conditions RWY12 wind 090 degrees 14-16kts veer 200 
degrees by end of TAF with showers moving into the vicinity Monday 
afternoon. No other hazards expected. For current airfield information 
please visit:  http://www.weather.bm/Aviation 

SHORT TERM FORECAST: Monday through Tuesday
Upper ridging topples over the area into the new week, with upper 
troughing then approaching from the W later on Monday with a well-defined 
trough axis passing overhead during Tuesday morning. The deepening 
low pressure area to our distant NW drags a cold front towards the 
area with a passage expected during Tuesday. In advance, however, 
convergence is established that may create clusters of showers during 
Monday afternoon /evening. On the surface, warmer and more humid 
air encroaches from the SW in advance of the front (weak WAA) and 
this is likely to contribute to some pre-frontal shower development, 
especially later on. Instability indices rise and although the mention 
of thunder has yet to be included in the detailed forecasts, this 
will need to be considered nearer the time. Tuesday is likely to 
start off damp and cloudy with the passage of the front, but it should 
soon brighten up and become mostly dry, however QPFs are mostly minimal 
although the latest UK suggests almost 0.5”. Moderate SSW winds increase 
to become strong SW’erlies for Monday evening/night, ahead of the 
front, then ease to become moderate from the WNW in the wake of the 
front. Seas build further into the moderate range up to around 6ft 
or so by the end of the period. 
WARNINGS: Small craft warning has been issued for late Monday evening 
into the start of Tuesday. 

LONG TERM FORECAST: Wednesday through Thursday
The long range sees upper troughing continuing to overspread the 
Island with the second defined trough axis likely passing Wednesday 
evening. Although there will be brightening skies during the long 
range, the odd shower cannot be ruled out given some weak instability 
in the boundary layer. Cooler temperatures blow in on those near 
north winds, which will fluctuate either side of N as ridging becomes 
a majority influencer. Moderate seas diminish slight to moderate 
later in the period. 
WARNINGS: Small craft warning is currently in effect “to” Tuesday 
morning – wording used to say that the winds are still expected to 
increase during the early to midmorning.

TROPICAL UPDATE
Please see https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7 
for the latest outlook from the NHC.