Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Friday, April 12, 2024  09:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Kimberley Zuill 

NOWCAST: Today through Tonight
The axis of the upper level ridge is passed overhead late last night 
and high pressure will continue to wane and shift out of our area. 
Moderate SE winds have veered to the S overnight and will strengthen 
to around 15-25 knots late morning, requiring a small craft warning 
to be in place. The combination of over 24hrs of moisture influx 
as well as thickening and lowering clouds may produce a few showers 
in our marine area as of later this morning, enhanced by the convergence 
ahead of the approaching cold front. The pressure squeeze will continue 
ahead of the front and all models indicate that winds will increase 
20-30 knots, but some suggest as soon as 18Z while others reserve 
the increase until late night.  The latest NOAA OPC Wind/Wave analysis 
has seas 3-6 feet in our area which initializes well with global 
wave models. Seas will build to 5-9í towards Friday night.
WARNINGS: A small craft warning is in effect for late this morning 
through tonight.

AVIATION: VFR	conditions. SSE wind 12-18kts increasing 18-23kts 
at times especially in and around any rogue showers. An AF warning 
may be issued late night for Strong Surface Winds and Gusts.  For 
more information please visit www.weather.bm/aviation

SHORT TERM: Saturday through Sunday
A broad upper trough remains over us throughout the weekend. With 
over 24hrs of moisture influx, a couple of showers may be seen to 
dot our marine area, enhanced by the convergence ahead of the approaching 
cold front. All models are now suggesting 20-30 knots and we may 
see higher/ exposed locations tally gusts near 40-45 knots (such 
as at Bermuda Maritime Museum sensor on the Commissionerís house). 
While there will be showers in the area, vertical profiles indicate 
that the more intense shower activity is reserved for Saturday afternoon 
as the main cold front passes over us. The UK still remains steadfast 
in suggesting greater convergence, convection and thus shower/thunderstorm 
activity while the GFS hold their position on a weak tail end frontal 
passage. Given that the models suggest that there will be several 
trough lines forming in the wake of the more active boundary, the 
winds will be strongest prior to the convective height (combination 
of showers and rain) and then post front drop to become moderate 
westerlies in the afternoon for a while before veering NW late night. 
The upper trough axis swings through the area by Saturday evening 
and then begins to transform into a short wave Saturday night as 
the overall upper through remains overhead. By Sunday, high pressure 
slowly builds from the west, settling conditions and causing light 
NW winds to become light and variable in direction overnight. Rough 
seas reach 7-11ft during Saturday then decrease early morning on 
Sunday, possibly even before sunrise. Moderate seas persist through 
the rest of Sunday as conditions settle. 
WARNINGS: A small craft warning is in effect through Saturday to 
Sunday morning. There is a slight chance that a thunderstorm advisory 
will be needed late Saturday afternoon as the front passes with supporting 
K-indices.

LONG TERM: Monday through Tuesday
During the long term, a high pressure ridge stretches over us and 
skies promise plenty of sunshine with light winds that vary in direction. 
Temperatures rebound to near average and the humidity will be low. 
Moderate seas diminish to become slight. 
WARNINGS: There are no watches, warnings, or advisories active at 
this time.