NOWCAST: (Today and tonight)
Overnight saw increasing cloud cover with a few isolated light showers 
developing with cloud bases ranging from 900-2500ft scattered to 
broken layer ~4,000ft. In the upper levels, a diffluent block over 
the central Atlantic prevents forward progression of the surface 
front to the west of Bermuda. The latest surface analysis shows the 
stalled and weakening frontal boundary to the nearby west, with ASCAT 
satellite data showing increasingly strong surface troughing to the 
southeast. These features gradually merge overhead through the course 
of the day and into tonight, with increasing cloud cover and shower 
activity expected into the night. Models show increasing instability, 
although this remains somewhat marginal, with dry air aloft despite 
increasingly moist air moving in, apparent on MIMIC satellite imagery. 
Models have been performing well with the GFS and EC verifying slightly 
better than the UK. All models suggest QPFs of 2-4mm through today 
and into tonight, suggesting only occasional moderate showers developing, 
increasing towards dawn. Moderate seas 4-6` matched OPC data and 
are expected to soon build rough later this afternoon.
WATCHES, WARNINGS and ADVISORIES: A Small Craft Warning is active 
for late this afternoon. A Windshear warning may be required for 
tonight.

AVIATION: VFR conditions expected to be occasionally interrupted 
by an increasing chance of MVFR/IFR conditions due to low ceilings 
and moderate precipitation throughout the period. RWY12 is currently 
active with light and variable winds soon increasing moderate to 
strong 020-040 degrees at 10-20kts For more information visit: http://weather.bm/aviation/

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Saturday through Sunday)
Near zonal flow in the upper levels sees some shortwave troughing 
help to increase periods of showers/rain on Saturday with weak ridging 
on Sunday. The frontal boundary and surface troughing remain within 
our area, gradually moving southward as the cold front to the north 
progresses across the Atlantic, weakening and leaving Bermuda within 
a pressure gradient squeeze with showers gradually easing on Sunday. 
The latest model runs show good overall agreement for this period 
with the GFS the wettest whilst the EC has pulled back on moderate 
QPFs and the UK showing even less precipitation. Nonetheless, instability 
indices remain elevated, but marginal on Saturday, indicating only 
the slightest chance of an isolated thunderstorm on Saturday amongst 
occasional patches of rain and embedded showers, with a few shallow 
CAA showers on Sunday helping to subdue temperatures remaining mostly 
light. A blended forecast approach has therefore been maintained 
with occasional periods of rain and/or showers easing later on Saturday. 
Strong northeasterly winds with higher gusts in and around showers 
gradually ease moderate to strong on Sunday. Seas are currently progged 
to peak ~13ft outside the reef on Saturday, remaining rough into 
Sunday whilst gradually diminishing.


WATCHES, WARNINGS and ADVISORIES: A Small Craft Warning is valid 
throughout this period. A Windshear warning may also be required. 
Slight chance of a thunderstorm advisory for Saturday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Monday through Tuesday)
Near zonal flow in the upper levels on Monday transitions to upper 
ridging on Tuesday as high pressure looks to build in from the distant 
north. A few brief showers are expected to occasionally brush across 
the marine area, easing on Tuesday with a mix of sun and cloud expected 
and only trace amounts of rainfall shown across NWP guidance. A blended 
forecast approach has been maintained, with the UK solution shown 
in the marine charts in good agreement with EC and GFS solutions, 
all showing surface pressure ~1028hPa. A gradual improvement in conditions 
is therefore currently forecast, with moderate to strong winds backing 
easterly and easing light to moderate on Tuesday. The weakening frontal 
boundary in the central Atlantic, coupled with continued troughing, 
help to maintain moderate to rough seas on Monday, gradually diminishing 
moderate on Tuesday.

WATCHES, WARNINGS and ADVISORIES: A Small Craft Warning may be required