Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Saturday, April 29, 2017  21:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Jennifer Smith 

NOWCAST (Tonight):
A 588DM+ upper high ridge is building in from the southwest while 
a 1028mb surface high is nosing in from the east. The models are 
initializing well and all show increasing subsidence and drying going 
forward. The latest Skew-T shows marginal moisture in the low levels 
with scattered low cloud across the region.  Earlier this afternoon 
a weak setup of the Morganís Cloud phenomenon was visible on satellite 
imagery however winds have turned light northwesterly eliminating 
the chance of further cloud development. Winds will stay that way 
until settling light westerly tonight as the high becomes situated 
to our southwest. Under clearing skies overnight, it will be noticeably 
muggy as the dewpoint holds steady in the mid-60s while the low drops 
to the upper 60s. No watches, warnings or advisories for the entire 
forecast discussion expected.

Marine: Light northwesterly winds gradually settle westerly over 
the marine area for the night while seas continue to be analysed 
in 2-4í range with little change expected in the near term. Visibility 
is expected to be good, with a few low clouds across the domain. 
Model guidance is in good agreement with OPC analysis and surrounding 
buoy reports.

Aviation: FEW-SCT 015-025 though no ceilings expected despite the 
local feature known as Morganís Cloud attempting  to set up over 
the airport today, now that winds have turned northwesterly they 
will work to erode any earlier cloud development.  Vis 7+ thru the 
pd. Winds become light westerly tonight and pick up near 10kts tomorrow.

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Sunday-Monday):
High pressure regime through Sunday, then a weak dissipating frontal 
boundary approaches Sunday night into Monday and continues to fall 
apart overhead. The result is mainly an increase in cloudiness a 
slight chance of a brief light shower Monday and veering light winds 
from the north, otherwise no impact. Seas remain slight through the 
period. The models are in good agreement with the high pressure strength 
and position as well as the weak boundary dropping in from the north 
early on Monday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Tuesday-Wednesday):
High pressure retreats east on Tuesday allowing the surface winds 
to become light to moderate from the southwest. The upper ridge will 
also breakdown and move east and we transition to a zonal/weak cyclonic 
flow aloft supporting what appears to be another weak and dry cold 
front that approaches Wednesday night. This front is more longitudinal 
in nature, which gives a better chance for spotty shower activity, 
but nothing much beyond that despite a slight increase in wind. Skies 
and visibility remain good on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Any ceilings 
or organized showers are not expected until early Thursday morning, 
outside of this forecast period. Seas are likely to build moderate 
on Wednesday.