NOWCAST

Isolated thunderstorms associated with a weak surface trough (that 
itself was the end of a weakening cold front) moved through the area 
mainly from the northwest to the southeast.  A few more thunderstorms 
skirted the northeastern quadrant of the marine area in the early 
afternoon, before dissipating and moving eastward.  Conditions are 
expected to remain unsettled through the overnight period, as the 
clouds associated with the trough are moving through the area, from 
west to east, on the visible satellite imagery.  Overnight cloud 
top cooling will contribute to isolated thunderstorms developing 
in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday.

SHORT TERM

A weak upper level trough will move away to our east on Thursday, 
leaving the possibility of a few showers behind as the remnants of 
the aforementioned surface trough.  I have left in a chance of thunder 
in the marine forecast for early Thursday as the UK thunder indices 
are favorable for any shower to develop into a thunderstorm.  The 
models are indicating a few to occasional showers in the area, but 
we will have to see how many actually pass over the Island.  Winds 
are expected to increase to 12-18 knots by Thursday evening as a 
cold front, moving east over the Gulf Stream at this time, approaches 
our area.  Overnight Thursday, a cut off low to our west broadens 
its trough and sharpens it into our area.  This in turn helps to 
push the cold front over our area with showers and a risk of thunder 
starting early Friday.  In the upper levels on Friday, the trough 
that is moving into our area, becomes the forward side of an omega 
blocking pattern.  This results in the stalling of the cold front 
over Bermuda for all of Friday.  The models do not agree on the amount 
of precipitation that will accompany the cold front.  For now I have 
patchy rain or showers in the forecast as it is unclear how solid 
or active the front will be.  The UK thunder indices are again very 
favorable for thunderstorms, hence a risk of thunder all day and 
night Friday.

LONG TERM

The upper level trough and omega blocking pattern is expected to 
slowly break down and move east early Saturday.  The models right 
now are agreeing that the front will linger in our area Saturday 
morning, with the wind shifting as the front finally passes, Saturday 
evening.  I have left a chance of thunder in the marine area for 
Saturday morning and have a few showers in the forecast.  Again, 
the models are unclear on the intensity of the precipitation, but 
I suspect that the front should be weakening by this time and I have 
only a few showers in the forecast for Saturday day.  Surface pressure 
is expected to increase slightly starting late Saturday night, bringing 
settled conditions with only a few clouds on Sunday.  In the upper 
levels, there are hints in all the models of weak ridging on Sunday 
as well.

TROPICAL OUTLOOK

From the National Hurricane Center:  FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN 
SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES SOUTH OF PRAIA IN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS.

THE REMNANTS OF GASTON...LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ARE PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES 
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 
0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.   

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. 
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.  THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES EAST 
OF THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
WESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED BY IGOR IN A DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A 
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH