Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Tuesday, October 16, 2018  08:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Ken Smith 

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For AM Tuesday, 16 October 2018
Forecaster:  KS

NOWCAST (Today)
Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies surrounding Bermuda and 
RADAR is clear all quadrants within 100nm.  Our current sky condition 
is few and winds are light northeasterly.  The latest surface analysis 
from the Ocean Prediction Center shows seas in our area less than 
6 feet which initializes well with the local wave model.

All global models are in generally good agreement throughout the 
forecast period.  Minor differences appear with regards to forecast 
wind speeds between UKMO and GFS whereupon the forecast is a blend 
of the two solutions.

High pressure will provide fine weather today.  Meanwhile a cold 
front now stretching from Nova Scotia southwest to the U.S. mid-Atlantic 
coast will gradually push southeastward as the ridge of high pressure 
over Bermuda drifts to our south.  Light and variable winds today 
will settle southwesterly and increase light to moderate tonight 
as the ridge axis moves to our south.  Seas will be smooth to slight 
through tonight.

There are no watches or warnings at this time and none are expected 
through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Wednesday & Thursday)
The cold front will continue to slowly approach to our northwest 
through Wednesday.  As it does light to moderate southwesterly winds 
will gradually increase moderate to strong.  Fair weather is expected 
throughout the day on Wednesday with isolated showers appearing late 
Wednesday night as the front draws closer.  Expect showers and a 
chance of thunder Thursday morning as stability indices become increasingly 
unstable as the front moves through.  As the front clears to our 
southeast generally fair weather is expected to return through the 
afternoon and night on Thursday.  Moderate to strong southwesterly 
winds early Thursday will soon veer westerly as the front moves in, 
then north-northwesterly in the afternoon.  Smooth to slight seas 
are expected throughout Wednesday, increasing moderate to rough by 
Thursday evening in response to stronger winds.

A Small Craft Warning may become necessary by Wednesday evening.
A Thunderstorm Advisory may be needed Thursday morning.
A Small Craft Warning may be needed throughout Thursday.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Friday & Saturday)
High pressure will gradually build in to our north behind the departing 
cold front providing mainly fair weather for Friday.  Moderate to 
strong northerly winds will slowly veer and ease to moderate east-northeasterly 
on Friday.  Moderate to rough seas Friday will begin to fall as the 
winds ease overnight.  The high will continue moving away to our 
distant northeast on Saturday and a new cold front will move off 
the U.S. eastern seaboard.  Fair conditions are expected to persist 
for Saturday though increased cloud cover is expected Saturday night 
as the front begins to approach.  Moderate easterly winds Saturday 
morning will gradually veer southerly and show some slight increase 
through Saturday.  Seas are expected to be slight to moderate by 
dawn Saturday through Saturday night.

A Small Craft Warning is expected through Friday evening and possibly 
Friday night.
No watches or warnings are expected for Saturday.

TROPICAL INFORMATION
There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

A low pressure system located along the north-central coast of
Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
much of Central America.  Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization overnight,
the system could still become a tropical depression before it moves
inland over Belize later today.  Regardless of development, gusty
winds are possible over portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
today.  In addition, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash
flooding, is possible across portions of Central America during 
the
next few days.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W from 03N-
14N, moving W at 15 kt. SSMI TPW imagery shows a distinct 
maximum in moisture around the wave axis. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 06N-10N between 20W-25W. 

A low amplitude tropical wave is analyzed along 49W from 01N-
14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by model 

analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant moisture 

in its environment. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
occurring from 10N-13N between 48W-54W.

A tropical wave axis is along 56W from 05N-21N, moving west at 
15 kt. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the 
wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. It is expected that 
the tropical wave along 49W will merge with this wave during the 

next 36 hours. Moisture associated with the combined waves will 

enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles today 

through Wednesday, with this activity spreading into the eastern 

Caribbean later in the week.

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 69W south of 
21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 90-120 nm of the wave axis. It is expected to become 
diffuse and ill-defined within the next 24-36 hours as it moves 

into the western Caribbean.