Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Tuesday, August 14, 2018  19:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Michelle Pitcher 

FORECAST DISCUSSION	Michelle Pitcher	Tuesday, August 14, 2018
NOWCAST (Tuesday)
The center of surface high pressure remains to the near southwest 
through tonight.  This maintains mainly light winds through tonight. 
 Earlier this afternoon winds were a bit stronger and gusty with 
boundary layer mixing.  Once the sun sets, winds are expected to 
settle back into the 5-10 knot range.  Models maintain a slight chance 
of showers in the area through tonight and I expect a couple to pass 
over parts of the Island.  The latest NOAA OPC Wind/Wave analysis 
has seas 3-4 feet in the area which is slightly higher than wave 
models have.  Otherwise, models are in good agreement with each other 
as well as with current conditions.  No watches or warnings are valid 
at this time.
AVIATION:  VFR conditions are expected to continue through tonight 
with steady winds; 30007KT.
SHORT TERM (Wednesday & Thursday)
 Upper level ridging remains strong over the area Wednesday through 
Thursday morning.  The ridge then declines Thursday afternoon as 
an upper trough approaches from the west.  This trough relaxes slightly 
and moves slightly north as it draws near Thursday night.    Models 
maintain northwesterly winds throughout Wednesday at 5-10 knots. 
 Again they will occasionally be slightly stronger (8-12 knots) at 
times in the afternoon and then slightly lower (5 knots) at times 
overnight.  Conditions are expected to be similar to today’s with 
more sun than clouds; however models have slightly increased moisture 
for Wednesday morning which will maintain isolated showers in the 
area for a few hours after dawn.  Models indicate mostly sunny skies 
for Thursday and mark it as the “driest” day in an already mostly 
dry forecast period.  Winds are expected to be similar to Wednesday’s 
winds. Wave models maintain seas about 2-3 feet and I have maintained 
2-4 feet in the forecast as the past few NOAA OPC Wind/Wave analysis 
has labeled our area as 3 feet and 3-4 feet.  No watches, warnings, 
or advisories are anticipated for these days at this time. 
LONG TERM (Friday & Saturday)
The upper trough becomes stationary to the near west Friday morning, 
with the GFS showing a much sharper trough than the UK model.  The 
trough then dissipates Friday night and mainly zonal flow remains 
through Saturday.  On the surface, a weak cold front stalls to the 
north later on Friday and remains into early Saturday.  While winds 
back to west and then west-southwest as a result, overall speeds 
are expected to continue to be 5-10 knots with hints of 8-12 knots 
on Saturday.  The latest model run keeps the showers slightly further 
away from the area, but in general the likelihood of a few light 
showers remains.   Models are still in relatively good agreement 
on these conditions and wave models maintain smooth to slight seas. 
No watches, warnings, or advisories are anticipated for these days 
at this time. 
TROPICAL UPDATE
There are currently no active tropical in the Atlantic Ocean.
TROPICAL OUTLOOK 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   200 PM EDT Tue Aug 14 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:  
A non-tropical low appears to be forming to the east of the larger 
complex low pressure system centered several hundred miles south 
of Cape Race, Newfoundland.  This new low could acquire some
subtropical characteristics by Wednesday.  However, after that time 
the low should be moving northeastward over colder waters and be 
absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.   * Formation chance 
through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.     Forecaster 
Avila