Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion

For Thursday, April 25, 2019  08:00 UTC

FORECASTER - Ken Smith 

Bermuda Weather Service Forecast Discussion
For AM Thursday, 25 April 2019
Forecaster:  KS

NOWCAST (Today)
Satellite imagery shows generally clear skies throughout the region. 
 A cold front curving southwest from Nova Scotia displays numerous 
spherics returns to about 36N, south of which the front weakens significantly. 
 Our current sky condition is few and winds are light northwesterly. 
 The latest north Atlantic surface analysis from the Ocean Prediction 
Centre shows seas in our area about 4-5 feet which initializes well 
with wave models.

UKMO and GFS are in generally good agreement throughout the forecast 
period.  Weak high pressure building in from the southwest will deliver 
mostly sunny skies today.  The cold front to our north will push 
south to Bermuda tonight but is expected to be extremely weak and 
produce little more than partly cloudy skies.  Light to moderate 
west-northwesterly winds will back westerly by this afternoon.  Seas 
will be slight to moderate and falling through tonight.

There are no watches or warnings at this time and none are expected 
through tonight.

SHORT TERM FORECAST (Friday & Saturday)
The very weak front in our vicinity may produce 1 or 2 brief, light 
showers on Friday, but otherwise mainly fair weather should prevail 
most of the day.  Meanwhile a more significant cold front will move 
off the U.S. east coast later Friday and advance steadily towards 
Bermuda on Saturday.  As usual, GFS is slightly faster with this 
front, however both GFS and UKMO agree less than  of rainfall is 
expected Saturday afternoon and evening.  Saturday should dawn with 
just partly cloudy skies, becoming mostly cloudy with a few showers 
in the afternoon and evening.  Stability indices indicate a chance 
of thunder with the frontal passage and this has been added to the 
marine forecast for Saturday evening.  Light to moderate westerly 
winds Friday morning will back southwesterly in the afternoon, then 
increase to moderate southerly Friday night.  Winds then quickly 
increase moderate to strong south-southwesterly by midday Saturday 
as the front approaches to our west.  Winds veer and ease to moderate 
westerly in the afternoon, then veer northwesterly Saturday night 
behind the passing cold front.  Winds may gust near gale to gale 
at times Saturday, mainly in association with showers.  Seas will 
be rising on Saturday while remaining in the slight to moderate range.

No watches or warnings are expected for Friday.
A Small Craft Warning is expected Saturday morning and afternoon.
A Thunderstorm Advisory could become necessary Saturday evening 
as conditions warrant.

LONG TERM FORECAST (Sunday & Monday)
By dawn Sunday the passing cold front will be cleared to our southeast 
and weak high pressure centred between Bermuda and Florida will become 
the dominant influence.  This high will slowly build becoming a broad 
ridge oriented southwest to northeast across Bermuda.  This will 
provide mostly sunny skies both Sunday and Monday.  A new cold front 
will weaken significantly as it approaches to the north Monday night. 
 Moderate northwesterly winds Sunday morning will ease light to moderate 
in the morning, then become light and variable Sunday afternoon. 
 Winds remain light and variable Monday morning, tending northwesterly 
to northeasterly by Monday afternoon, then increasing to moderate 
northeasterly Monday night under the influence of the new cold front. 
 Seas will be slight to moderate through the period, falling slightly 
on Monday.

No watches or warnings are expected Sunday or Monday.